Career

Jinting Guo

Jinting Guo
Job Market Candidate

  • Ph.D., Economics, Goethe University Frankfurt, GSEFM program, 2019 - present
  • M.Sc., Quantitative Economics, Goethe University Frankfurt, GSEFM program, 2019 - present
  • M.Sc., Finance, University of Freiburg, 2016 - 2019
  • BA, Finance, Henan University of Economics and Law, 2012 - 2016

  • Macroeconomics
  • Macroeconometrics
  • Behavioral Economics

  • Goethe University Frankfurt
  • Differential Equations and Introduction to Matlab (Ph.D. level)
  • Advanced Microeconomics I (Master level)
  • Advanced Microeconomics II - Game theory (Master level)

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Prof. Michael Binder, Ph.D.
Professor of International Macroeconomics & Macroeconometrics, Goethe University Frankfurt
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Prof. Yulei Luo, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Hong Kong
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Prof. Dr. Alexander Meyer Gohde
Professor of Financial Market and Macroeconomics, Goethe University Frankfurt
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Dr. Johannes Wacks
Monetary Policy and Analysis Division (Vo 11-3), Deutsche Bundesbank
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On the Identification of Diagnostic Expectations: Econometric Insights from DSGE Models (Job market paper)

Abstract: This paper provides the first econometric evidence for diagnostic expectations (DE) in DSGE models. Using the identification framework of Qu and Tkachenko (2017), I show that DE generate dynamics unreplicable under rational expectations (RE), with no RE parameterization capable of matching the autocovariance implied by DE. Consequently, DE are not observationally equivalent to RE and constitute an endogenous source of macroeconomic fluctuations, distinct from both structural frictions and exogenous shocks. From an econometric perspective, DE preserve overall model identification but weaken the identification of shock variances. To ensure robust conclusions across estimation methods and equilibrium conditions, I extend Bayesian estimation with Sequential Monte Carlo sampling to the indeterminacy domain. These findings advance the econometric study of expectations and highlight the macroeconomic relevance of diagnostic beliefs.

Consumption Dynamics under Diagnostic Expectation, with Yulei Luo and Penghui Yin

Abstract: Household survey data show that positive income shocks lead to a positive change in current consumption, but a negative change in future consumption. These empirical results contradict the predictions of the standard rational expectations-permanent income hypothesis model in which the change in current consumption only depends on unpredictable income shocks. To explain this puzzling consumption pattern, we study a behavioral permanent income hypothesis model under diagnostic expectations, and show that our model with a realistic two-component income process has the potential to generate the observed consumption dynamics. Finally, we show that although the welfare losses due to distorted beliefs are small, diagnostic expectations can have important implications for governments' stimulus fiscal policies.